不同泰勒规则在中国实证检验的比较研究管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

II II Abstract Since the 1990s, with the development of financial markets and financial innovation, part of the Western developed countries change the regulation of monetary policy, shift from quantity model to price model, such as the interest rate. At the same time, in order to solve the problem of dynamic inconsistency, academics and monetary authorities gradually give up the idea of discretionary and advocate the implementation of the rule-based monetary policy. Under this context, the Taylor’s rule has become the main principle of the central banks monetary policy in some countries. Peoples Bank of China formulation and implementation monetary policy has obvious discretionary characteristic, there are some problems as low independence, lagging regulation and so on. With the development and improvement of the economic and financial system, the policy effect of discretionary is weaking. Therefore, it is inevitable to make monetary policy as the rule type in future. In addition, with economic globalization and the rapid development of capital markets, exchange rates and asset prices have deep impact on macro-economic and social development in many countries and receive more attention of many countries’ central bank. So, it has important theoretical and practical significance to consider the exchange rate and asset price in building and selecting the specific form of Chinese monetary policy rule. This paper reviews the theory of monetary policy rules and combines with the actual situation of monetary policy operations in China, supposes that monetary policy of China should conform to Taylor’s rules. In order to test the impact of exchange rates and asset prices on monetary policy, both of them are added into the Taylor’s rule model. The Taylor’s rules designed in this paper include interest rate, exchange rate and asset price. And we select the Chinese actual data from the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2011 as sample. Firstly, we use Hodrick-Presco