城市轨道交通ppp项目资本结构优化分析-analysis on capital structure optimization of ppp project in urban rail transit.docxVIP

哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学管理学硕士学位论文 - - PAGE IV - - - PAGE III - Abstract Public Private Partnerships (PPP) not only can attract abundant private capital to solve the scarcity of public funds, but also help to take advantage of techniques and experiences of private sector entities to accelerate metro development. The application in Chinese Metro industry is less than ten years. As a key aspect to the successful implementation of PPP projects, Capital structure of PPP projects not only influences the total investment, but also influences the profitability, and the liquidity of the project company for metro PPP projects. PPP projects is risky, however, the current research didn’t take financial risks into account when analyzing capital structure of PPP projects. This thesis is focused on capital structure optimization of metro PPP projects with the consideration of financial risks. Based on the analysis of influencing factors and optimization goal, the optimization model, is established to solve the decision problem with the consideration of financial decision indices of equity investors and loan banks. Monte-Carlo simulation (MC) is used to assign profitability distribution functions to financial risk variables and then @RISK is used to make financial risk analysis. Finally, the capital optimization model was applied to Beijing Metro Line 4 as an empirical study. The results show that for Beijing Metro Line 4 PPP project, with 30 years’ concession period, the best equity ratio is 35% when the weight of private sector is 0.8, and it is 48.5% when the weight is equal. Further, it shows that through scenario analysis, the more fluctuant financial risk variables are, the lower the best equity ratio is. And the length of concession period is negatively related to the best equity ratio. This research offers a practical decision method and a new research perspective for solving the metro PPP capital structure optimization pro