灰色预测模型在区域物流需求预测中应用.docVIP

灰色预测模型在区域物流需求预测中应用 　　摘要：区域物流需求属于派生需求，由区域经济发展水平决定，对区域经济的发展具有服务引导作用。灰色预测模型具有对数据要求限制少、中短期预测精准等特点，特别适合区域物流需求的预测。文章介绍了灰色预测模型以及在区域物流需求中应用，并结合实例进行了应用研究，通过误差检验，灰色预测模型具有较高的预测精度, 是一种非常实用的预测方法。 　　关键词：区域物流；需求预测；灰色预测模型 　　中图分类号：F224文献标识码；B 　　 　　Abstract: The regional logistics requirements belong to derived requirements, its decided by the level of regional economy. And it provides service and guidance for regional economy development. The grey prediction model is the best method of the forecast of regional logistics requirement, because it needs less data and is accurate for middle and short periodic forecast. The grey prediction model and its application to predict regional logistics are introduced. The model is used in the example application. It uses the forecasted message and old model to make the error analysis. An actual application of the logistics scale prediction is made to illustrate the effectiveness of the grey model. This method is very effective. 　　Key words: regional logistics；prediction requirements；grey prediction model 　　摘要：区域物流需求属于派生需求，由区域经济发展水平决定，对区域经济的发展具有服务引导作用。灰色预测模型具有对数据要求限制少、中短期预测精准等特点，特别适合区域物流需求的预测。文章介绍了灰色预测模型以及在区域物流需求中应用，并结合实例进行了应用研究，通过误差检验，灰色预测模型具有较高的预测精度, 是一种非常实用的预测方法。 　　关键词：区域物流；需求预测；灰色预测模型 　　中图分类号：F224文献标识码；B 　　 　　Abstract: The regional logistics requirements belong to derived requirements, its decided by the level of regional economy. And it provides service and guidance for regional economy development. The grey prediction model is the best method of the forecast of regional logistics requirement, because it needs less data and is accurate for middle and short periodic forecast. The grey prediction model and its application to predict regional logistics are introduced. The model is used in the example application. It uses the forecasted message and old model to make the error analysis. An actual application of the logistics scale prediction is made to illustrate the effectiveness of the grey model. This method is very effective. 　　Ke