房地产项目工程设计风险评价研究-工程管理专业论文.docxVIP

中文摘要 随着我国国民经济的飞速发展，城市化进程的不断加快，房地产投资项目的 规模也越来越大，单个项目的建筑面积日益增大、产品属性也更加综合；房地产 产品对人们的影响更加多元；房地产项目的工程设计的难度及风险也与日俱增。 对设计阶段的风险管理无论对房地产开发企业自身还是对于与其相关的各方都 变得举足轻重。影响房地产项目工程设计的风险因素复杂，并且各风险因素相互 影响，所以非常有必要加强其风险的评价与管理。 当前，我国相当大一部分房地产开发企业对设计阶段的风险管理意识还不是 很强，在风险管理中其风险因素的辨识与评价还未形成体系。所以就房地产项目 工程设计的特点，从方案设计、扩初设计、施工图设计、施工配合四个阶段分别 利用核对表法，问卷调查法、德尔菲法分析确定了房地产项目工程设计的 16 大 风险因素。本文以水榭湾项目为例对其 16 大设计风险因素进行了分析，运用层 析分析法及模糊综合评价法构建递阶层次结构风险评价模型及模糊评判模型对 风险因素进行评价，确定各风险因素的隶属权重及其影响程度。根据这些风险因 素的特点分别找出其具体的应对措施。从而形成房地产项目工程设计风险评价理 论体系，为项目管理与决策者提供依据，并最终为推动行业的科学发展提供思路。 综上所述，本文辨识出了房地产项目工程设计中四个阶段的 16 个重要风险 因素，通过层次分析法、模糊综合评价法确定了风险严重程度，并根据风险因素 的特点制定了切实可行风险控制策略。为行业的精细化管理工作提供了在设计风 险评价这一方面的研究。 关键词：工程设计风险, 风险辨识, 风险评价, 层次分析法 ABSTRACT With the rapid development of our national economy and urbanization process, the scale of real estate investment project and its single project’s construction area are both becoming larger; the product attribute is more synthetic; the influence of real estate project on people is more extensive. What’s more, the difficulty and risk in engineering design also has an increase. No matter for the real estate enterprise himself or the related parties, the risk management in the design phase is playing a more decisive role. What complicated is the risk factors that influence the real estate project’s engineering design. At the same time, they influence each other as well. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the risk evaluation and management. At present, most of our country’s real estate enterprises still have a weak consciousness of the risk management in the design phase. Besides, in the risk management, system of the identification and assessment of the risk factors has not yet formed. Therefore, according to the features of engineering design in real estate project, sixteen risk factors have been analyzed and defined, using checking table method, questionnaire method and Delphi method in four phases, namely conceptual design, development design, construction drawing design and construc