新常态下中国经济周期国际协动性元分析.docxVIP

新常态下中国经济周期国际协动性元分 蒲晓晔亚柯?费德勒穆克 西安财经学院公共管理学院泽佩林大学国际经济理 论与政策系 摘要： 中国经济步入新常态后，经济增长速度及经济周期波动趋势呈现新特征，国际 经济周期协动性影响着中国经济的增长。选取63篇论文，对中国与其他国家或 地区的经济周期协动性进行元分析实证研究。结果表明，中国与越南和新西兰的 协动性最强，屮国与美国、新加坡、马來西亚和泰国的经济周期协动性较强，且 呈逐渐增强的趋势，但与日本和菲律宾的协动性却较弱。贸易强度、产业内贸易 强度、金融开放度、财政政策及货币政策会促进经济周期协动性的加强。所选中 文样木对中国经济周期协动性研究及选定的国家稳健性检验均不存在发表偏好。 因此，提出提升内动力、合理运用宏观调控工具、注重外资引进质量、构建经济 波动的预警机制的对策建议。 关键词： 新常态;经济周期协动性;元分析; 作者简介：蒲晓晔，女，云南江城人，经济学博士，副教授，研究方向:宏观经 济理论与实践，公共政策； 作者简介：亚柯?费德勒穆克，男，奥地利人，经济学博士，教授，研究方向： 中国经济问题，国际经济。 收稿日期：2017-04-17 基金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目《中国新常态经济发展的动力结构 优化研究》(15XJA790004) Meta Analysis on the International Synchronization of the New Normal Economics ofChinese Business Cycle PU Xiao-ye Jarko Fidrmuc School of Public Administra/tion, Xi AN University of Finance and Economics; International Economics Theory and Policy, Zeppelin University; Abstract： With Chinas economy going to the new normal, the economic growth rate and business cycle fluctuations shows new characters, the international busi ness impac ts more to China s economic grow th. We survey 63 individueil papers to review previous research on China s business cycle correlation with other economies applying meta-analysis. We confirm that the highest level of business-cycle synchronization is found with Vietnam and New Zealand, however, the Chinese business cycle is relatively wel1 synchronized with the USA, Singeipore, Malaysia and Thciiland. There is ci lower degree of synchronization with Japan and the Philippines. We can sec that Chinaz s business-cycle correlations with other economies have increased over the years.Trading intensity, investment intensity, financial openness, fiscal policy and monetary policy, industrial structure similarity and business cycle synchronization are all positively related. We do not find any robust evidence for a publication bias in Chinese-language publications and other economies. We proposed the countermeasures and suggestions that is improve motivation, reasonable use of macroeconomic regulation