TED中英双语演讲稿How juries are fooled by statistics.pdfVIP

How juries are fooled by statistics Peter Donnelly 2006-11-08 /talks/peter_donnelly_how_juries_are_fooled_by_statistics Pollykann - A powerful video player (App) for learning languages provided technical support for the subtitles. 本字幕由【小鹦看看】- 用了会后悔，不用更后悔的外语学习App，提供技术支持。 As other speakers have said, its a rather daunting experience -- 正如一些演讲者所说 在这里的观众面前演讲 a particularly daunting experience -- to be speaking in front of this audience. 是一次令人畏缩的经历--相当令人恐慌 But unlike the other speakers, Im not going to tell you about 不过与其他演讲者不同 我不会给大家讲 the mysteries of the universe, or the wonders of evolution, 宇宙的迷团 也不会讲进化的奥妙 or the really clever, innovative ways people are attacking 抑或是人们用来对抗世界上主要的不平等现象的 the major inequalities in our world. 那些着实非常奇妙新颖的办法 Or even the challenges of nation-states in the modern global economy. 更不会讲现代全球经济下国家之间的挑战 My brief, as youve just heard, is to tell you about statistics -- 就像你们刚才听到的 概括来说 我讲的内容是统计学-- and, to be more precise, to tell you some exciting things about statistics. 更确切地说 是一些统计学中很有趣的事情 And thats -- 而这-- (Laughter) （笑） -- thats rather more challenging --相对所有在我之前以及之后的演讲者而言 than all the speakers before me and all the ones coming after me. 具有空前绝后的挑战性 (Laughter) （笑） One of my senior colleagues told me, when I was a youngster in this profession, 当我在统计学这个领域还是新人的时候 一个资深同事相当自豪地告诉我 rather proudly, that statisticians were people who liked figures 统计学家是那些喜欢数字 but didnt have the personality skills to become accountants. 但性格上不适合做会计的人 (Laughter) （笑） And theres another in-joke among statisticians, and thats, 还有一个统计学的笑话 How do you tell the introverted statistician from the extroverted statistician? “怎样看出统计学家是内向还是外向呢？” To which the answer is, 答案就是 The extroverted statisticians the one who looks at the other persons shoes. “外向的统计学家会看别人的鞋” (Laughter) （笑） But I want to tell you something useful -- and here it is, so concentrate now. 不过其实我想讲一些有用的--所以请注意 This evening, theres a reception in the University