海外中资光伏行业2023年中期策略：产业链降价刺激需求，关注结构性机遇.docxVIP

Overweight（Maintain）Focus on Structural Investment Opportunities in the Overweight （Maintain） ——Investment Strategy of Overseas Photovoltaics Industry Mid-2023 Jun.30th，2023 Electric Equipment and New Energy Industry Analyst Xiaoli Yu yuxiaoli@ SFC：AXK331 SAC：S0190518020003 Zhongye Zhang zhangzhongye@ SAC：S0190522070004 Notice: Zhongye Zhang is not a license holder registered at the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC), and is not allowed to engage in regulated activities in Hong Kong. Global installed PV demand is expected to exceed expectations in 2023. According to IEA, the global new PV installed capacity in 2022 is about 240GWdc; China, the EU and the U.S. together account for 68% of the total. Affected by factors such as price cuts in the PV industry chain, favorable policies, energy security and carbon neutrality goals, it is expected that the global new PV installed capacity will increase by 58% year-over-year to 382GWdc in 2023. China, the EU and the United States are expected to achieve high growth. China centralized PV project growth: In the first five months of 2023, Chinese mainland PV new installations are 61.21GWac, a 158% increase year-over-year; The decline in module prices has boosted the IRR of the power station. In 2023, with the promotion of the construction of a large wind- solar power base, the installed demand for centralized PV will be released. The European PV market is expected to remain prosperous: The Russia-Ukraine war has prompted Europe to seek alternative energy, REPowerEU Plan increase the 2030 target for renewables to 45% so that European PV demand will continue to boom. SPE is optimistic that the EU will install 67.8GWdc of solar capacity in 2023, a 64% increase year-over-year. U.S. centralized PV project demand release: In 2023Q1, new PV installation in the U.S. increased by 47% year-over-year to 6.1GWdc, and concentrated PV increased by 66% year-over-year to 3.8GWdc. In 2023, due to increased module supply, module p