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STRATEGY AND THE INTERNET: TRENDS AND PREDICTIONSReal Tech ConferencePeter Stanger第一页，共十七页。 E-COMMERCE IS DEAD“E-Commerce Is Dead, Long Live E-Commerce” The Industry Standard, April 2000“Going, Going, Gone: Business-to-Consumer Sector Goes Bust”F, April 2000“Can you build a brand online selling third-party goods? The answer is no, even though everyone used to think the answer was yes”Bryan Rutbert, Warburg Dillon Read“The living dead have gotten away with murder because the public markets have funded riskier ventures. Look at A - if could be the biggest living dead the public markets have ever seen.”Warren Packard, Draper Fisher Jurvetson第二页，共十七页。 TOM SIEBELCEO, Siebel Systems“If you can’t generate profits, significant market share and customer satisfaction, you re out of business.”“On the B2B exchange side, I don’t think anyone will survive. They are all gone.”第三页，共十七页。 THE CAPITAL MARKETS HAD IT ALL WRONGTravelocityBExpediaDEPricelineeBayAmazon$123BWebvaneBayAmazonAll Other$11.4B第四页，共十七页。 IS THE REVOLUTION OVER?July 28, 1794第五页，共十七页。 THE BUMPY RIDE OF ECONOMIC REVOLUTIONS1860 -- 1925第六页，共十七页。 FUNDAMENTAL FORCES ARE AT WORK120100804060200177017801775IndexWorkers per bushel of manufactured cottonEngland 1770-83Price of the Model T touring car1908-20191019151920198519901995Price of CPUcomputing power$/MIPS 1982-95Lower processing costs ...… with increased throughput ...Fiber capacityTime1050104103102… and powerful network economics0 20 40 60 80 100 012345678910nValue increases as the square of connectionsProfitLossValueCost02v6v12v20v30v42v56v72v90vn(n-1)vF+0F+ 2cF+ 3cF+ 4cF+ 5cF+ 6cF+ 7cF+ 8cF+ 9cF+ 10cF+ ncValue, costConnectionsCost increases linearly with connections… lower storage costs ...$/MBAverageHD sizein PC atretail(GB)Harddrivesize (GB)Cost ($/MB)第七页，共十七页。 LONG DISTANCE Wholesale (Network)Design/buildOperations/maintenanceResale/interconnectionRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingRetailSales/marketingAccount managementBillingNetw