Wood Mackenzie Horizons - The Cost of Capital Discipline - Big Oil’s longevity challenge 资本成本纪律-大型石油公司的长寿挑战.pdfVIP

Horizons

Thecostof

capitaldiscipline:

BigOil’slongevitychallenge

February2026

Authors

Neivan

BoroujerdiTomEllacottGreigAitken

Director,SeniorVicePresident,Director,

CorporateResearchCorporateResearchCorporateResearch

Horizons|Thecostofcapitaldiscipline

2

INTRODUCTION

Sustaininghydrocarbonproductionthroughthe2030shas

becomeastrategicpriorityfortheworld’slargestoiland

gascompanies.Aslowingenergytransitionandchallenges

inbuildingoutlow-carbonbusinesseshaveprompteda

recalibrationbacktowardsoilandgastomaintaincashflows

(anddividends)throughthenextdecade.

Afterfiveyearsofreducedupstreamactivity,Weforecastglobaloilandgasdemandtogrow

however,manycompanieshavebeenleftwithby6%to2040,providingasolidmacrobackdrop

production–andcash-flow–outlooksthata