不同气候背景江西汛期两次连续暴雨过程对比的分析.docVIP

不同气候背景江西汛期两次连续暴雨过程对比分析  郭达烽  周芳  （江西省气象台，南昌，330046） 摘要:2010 年和 2011 年江西省 3-5 月前汛期出现了两种截然不同的气候特征，一个是雨量偏多，暴雨频繁， 另一个则是总雨量少，出现罕见的春旱。针对这两种不同气候背景下，汛期出现的连续暴雨过程，作者应用 常规和非常规气象观测资料、T639 物理量场分析资料，采用天气学方法和诊断分析方法，对两次过程的环 流背景、最强雨日的形势场、地面中尺度系统及物理量场进行了对比分析。结果表明：两次过程均具有典型 的 500hPa 环流形势、地面的中尺度系统、强的不稳定能量积累、充足的水汽输送。在低层辐合抬升、高层 辐散的形势下，暴雨区上方产生了深厚的对流上升运动，并维持了较长的时间，并分别在不稳定能量的释放 和积累过程中，产生了强的降水，但 2011 年的过程总雨量、降水强度、影响范围、造成的灾害均远小于 2010 年的过程。通过对比分析，可以更好地为不同年景的暴雨量级和落区预报提供参考。 关键词：对比分析 中尺度系统 诊断分析 连续暴雨过程 The analysis of two sustainable rainstorm events in Jiangxi province under different climate background Guodafeng zhoufang Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory , nanchang ,330046 Abstract:The First Rainy Season in Jiangxi (which refers to the two months from March to May) province in 2010 and 2011 had shown quite different climate charateristics, the former rainy and with much more rainstorm events, while the latter with spring drought rarely seen in history. Based on the routine data and output data of model T639, two rainstorm events in 2010 andd 2011 are diagnosed and analysed.The resualts showed that these two events happened under the same typical circulation situation, with surface mesoscale system, strong unstable energy and enough transfer of water vapor. Under the situation of convergence in low level and divergence in upper level, strong vertical ascend mobement has been triggered from lower to upper level, and this movement has sustained for several hours, and there is energy buildup and release during two events.However, the total rainfall, the precipitation intensity, the area which has been influenced by heavy rainfall, and the damage in 2010 is far more than 2011. The analysis and results can provide good references to the future forecast on the intensity and impact area of heavy rainfall events in different climate backgrounds which are similar to these two years. Key words:comparative analysis, mesoscale system, diagnosed analysis, sustainable rainstorm events 前言 暴雨一直是江西省的主要灾害