水文学确定性和不确定性方法及其集合研究进展_严登华.docVIP

2013  1  SHUILI  XUEBAO  44  1 0559-9350 2013 01-0073-10  1  1 2  1  1 1.  2.  100083 100038  P333  1  A  2  1  2  3  1  1  21  4 1.1 40  20  50  5  80  3  2  20  2011-12-01 2009IM020100 2011IM01100051009148 1976- E-mail denghuay@ 1979- E-mail yangzy@  973 2012BAC19B03  2010CB951102 1  20  90  3S  1.2 4  20  80 3  90 3 20 80 2000 2 2.1  1  6  4 2  2  7 8 3 9 7 3 4 2.2 10 1 11 12 13-15 2  16  3 4 17  10  20  19 18  21 22 5 23  3 3.1 24 25 26  1  27  5 5  30-31  29  28 2  33  34  20 %  32  3  8  3  3 2  1 3.2 5  17 36  35  20  37  38  1 10  10  39  4 4.1  20 20 20 20 20 40  80 80 80 90 41  2  44  -  43  4  1  42  3  - 4.2 9 6  45  -  46  6 47  5 5.1  NWS GLUE General Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation  48  49  50 51  5.2  5  30  5.3 49 6  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17  PETER M . Global environmental change an introduction J . Annual Reviews Futher 1992 23 1-14 . . J . 2011 22 2 279-285 . Clark R T . A review of some mathematical models used in hydrology with observation on their calibration and use J . Journal of Hydrology 1973 19 1 1. . J . 2006 21 3 256-261 . . M . 2006 . . M . 2009 . Sivapalan M . Prediction in ungauged basins a grand challenge for theoretical hydrology J . Hydrol . Process . 2003 17 3163-3170 . . J . 2002 21 4 341-348 . . J . 2007 18 2 286-292 . . M . 2011 . . M . 1988 . . M . 2008 . . M . 1963 . . M . 1964 . . M . 2005 . . M . 2004 . . Ⅰ J . 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49  2003 14 4 407-411 . . J . 2004 15 3 400-407 . .