中观视角下我国养老保险基金安全支付系数走势及相关因素研究.pdfVIP

论文摘要 我国养老保险基金支付能力（以下简称基金支付能力）是衡量养老保险收 支平衡状况和社会保障能力的中心指标。体现基金支付能力的核心指标是安全 支付系数，由滚存结余和当期基金支出两项之比得到。由于我国养老保险制度 改革和发展滞后，在人口老龄化速度加快、离退休人员的总数每年递增、国企 改革力度加大、制度转型成本难以消化和历史隐形风险显现等诸多危机的共同 作用下，基金支付能力经受着严重的考验。本文首先从中观视角入手，以 12 年 内我国的 31 个省级行政单位的养老保险收支数据为基础，计算出安全支付系 数，将其走势绘制成图，描述其走势，分析低点形成的原因，同时分离出特例 地区。在此基础之上运用定量分析工具计算出相关变量对安全支付系数的影响 强弱以及影响范围的大小，并利用 2006 年数据对特殊的相关因素（财政社会保 障地方补贴）进行地区性差异和公平性的定量分析。本文最后用国际通用的警 度表示方式（五种不同颜色）标示 12 年间 31 个地区的养老保险安全支付的不 同警度，发现我国绝大多数地区养老保险基金还面临支付风险，因此提出要构 建我国养老保险基金安全预警机制，并介绍其功能和组织环节以及可以设置的 警兆指标。 关键词：养老保险基金；安全支付系数；相关因素；警度 1- Abstract Chinas capacity to pay the pension （ability to pay ）measures the balance of payments position and it is the center indicator to reflect the capacity of a countrys social security system. Secure payment coefficient is the core indicator of the capacity to pay. It is the ratio of the accumulated fund and the fund expenditures. Since Chinas old-age insurance system reform and development lags behind, the faster ageing of the population, the total number of retirees increases every year and the strengthened reform of state-owned enterprises, the Fund ability to pay through a severe test. This paper first calculated the coefficient of secure payment through the data of 12 years of the pension income and expenditure in Chinas 31 administrative units, and then draw the maps of their movements, described the trend to find out the reasons for the formation of low, isolated exceptions region. On this basis, I used quantitative analysis tools to calculate the strength and the size of the affected area of the variables and the ability to pay. Then I used 2006 data of the special factors (the local social security subsidies) to find out the regional di